Housing Prices: More Room to fall? (IMF)

“Facts about housing cycles Establishing the turning points in a series of economic data—“dating” cycles—is more reliable the farther back in time the series extends. House price data going back to the 1600s, such as for the Herengracht neighborhood in Amsterdam, are the exception and not the rule. But for many members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), national house price data do extend back to 1970, which is long enough to permit reliable dating of house price cycles.

Between 1970 and the mid-1990s, the average upturn in house pricesin 18 OECD economies lasted just over five years, during which real (inflation-adjusted) prices increased an average of 40 percent (see table). The subsequent downturn typically lasted four and a half years, and prices fell about half as much as they rose during the upturn.

The past offers a prism through which to view the present house price cycle, which started sometime between the mid-1990s and early 2000s for most countries. The upturn in this most recent cycle lasted twice as long on average as those in the past (41 quarters compared with 21 quarters) and was more pronounced, with prices rising nearly three times as much. The ongoing downturn is approaching the
duration of past downturns, and the fall in house prices thus far is nearing the amplitude of past downturns. But because prices rose much more sharply than in earlier upturns, their decline might eclipse those observed in the past.”

Housing Prices: More Room to fall? (IMF)

FMI : “les prix de l’immobilier ont de la marge pour baisser”

Le FMI contre la déductibilité fiscale des intérêts d’emprunts immobiliers

FMI : Les récessions liées à l’immobilier sont plus longues

Rubrique : Prix immobiliers, Prévisions
Tags: Etudes, Marché immobilier
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