Loading ...Robert J. Shiller : Irrational Exuberance
1 novembre 2009 5:58 - Le buzz immobilier
One can access an Excel file with the data set (used and described in the book) on stock prices, earnings, dividends and interest rates since 1871, updated.
One can access an Excel file with the data set (used and described in the book) on home prices, building costs, population and interest rates since 1890, updated.
The Yale School of Management produces Stock Market Confidence Indexes which reveal changing attitudes among individual and institutional investors over time.
The definition of “irrational exuberance” has its origin in a speech Alan Greenspan gave on December 5, 1996.
I write a monthly column “Finance in the 21st Century” for Project Syndicate, with coverage around the world, and this column contains further development of some themes in the book.
I write a regular column “Economic View” for the New York Times.
Richard Thaler and I have organized a number of scholarly workshops in behavioral finance that are the source of many themes in the book.
In my 2007 presidential address for the Eastern Economic Association I compared historic turning points in real estate with the situation in today’s markets.
I teach a course at Yale University entitled Economics 527, Law 20083, Management 565, “Behavioral and Institutional Economics”.
I teach a course at Yale University entitled Economics 252: Financial Markets. A video of all the lectures in the course is available on Open Yale.
My 2008 book Subprime Solution: How Today’s Financial Crisis Happened and What to Do about It, Princeton University Press, connects some of the themes of Irrational Exuberance to the subprime crisis, and proposes policy measures to deal with the crisis.
George Akerlof and I have written Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press, 2009, which describes the implications of research in behavioral economics for economic booms, crises and busts.
Robert J. Shiller : Irrational Exuberance
Robert J. Shiller : a History of Home Values
Pourquoi le prix de l’immobilier pourrait continuer à décliner
Spéculation : une hausse excessive finit… au niveau du départ
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4 novembre 2009 à 22:24
Décidemment, en le remontant à la une 24 heures avant la publication de cet article de Newsweek nous étions intuitifs !
“Where is Robert Shiller (the bestselling author of Irrational Exuberance) when you need him? In fact, the Yale professor, who accurately foretold the crash of 2001, has just finished tallying the latest Case-Shiller index of top U.S. housing markets, which shows that home prices fell 7.2 percent between December and April, before rising 5 percent between April and August. While historical gaps in data make it tough to track perfectly, Shiller believes we have just seen the sharpest turnaround in American house prices in a century. British and Australian markets are starting to swing up, too, and in many Asian cities, real estate is positively buoyant. How is it possible that home prices are going up again even as employment is going down in most parts of the world, wage growth is nonexistent, and public debt levels are reaching record highs? “We’ve just gotten very speculative in our behavior, and it’s a change that will likely last. I’m inclined to say that we’re seeing a new bubble,” says Shiller.”
27 avril 2010 à 17:23
c’est la defintion meme de l’horreur economique que cette folie inconsciente, il faudra des decennies pour effacer cette ivresse collective