Hard Landing Macro News of the Week

21 décembre 2006 22:47 - Le buzz immobilier

Les nouvelles économiques de la semaine en direct de New York : “NAHB confidence index of home builders further down and at an historic low. Building permits down another 3% after falling 5% in the previous month; as low as they were in 1997. Mortgage applications down 10% in the last week after some recovery in previous week.

GDP growth revised down to 2% on even worse residential construction
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rising and continuing claims at their highest level since January
Philly Fed index of manufacturing strongly down again for the third month in a row
Stock market indexes falling today on US growth worries in spite of surge of M&A activity
Foreclosures in mortgages increasing
Subprime borrowers in trouble: study says 20% of them may go into foreclosure
Distressed loan problems spreading from secured mortgage loans to unsecured consumer loans (see HSBC)

Yield curve further inverted
Transportation sector (leading indicator of economic activity) in trouble as bad news from Fedex, other transport companies and the Dow Transportation index fall suggest
Major retailers showing slow retail sales growth (Circuit City, Best Buy, Wal-Mart)
Same store sales among major retailers in latest December week (ICSC-UBS survey) up only 2.4% relative to a year ago (i.e., flat in real terms).
Commodity prices falling, including copper and other metals (suggesting US and global economic slowdown).
PPI inflation up again
Current account deficit up in Q3 to $225 billion (annualized $900b)

Soft Landing Macro News of the Week:

Housing starts up 6% after falling 14% the previous month; so they are still down 8% over the last two months
Leading indicators index slightly up this month
Dow Jones index reaching new highs before slumping towards the end of the week
M&A activity reaching a frenzy; but academic study suggests that such M&A waves are followed by underperforming stock markets

Have I missed anything else…or is that it all for the soft landing news….?

Hard Landing Macro News of the Week, Nouriel Roubini | Dec 21, 2006

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